Batteries now beat gas peakers on cost – Poland's capacity market still points the other way

What happened

Wood Mackenzie's latest global cost study finds four-hour battery storage cheaper than open-cycle gas turbines in all 43 markets where both were modelled. In Europe, turnkey battery capex rose about 2% this year as cell prices rebounded, but is still forecast to fall 12% by 2031.¹

Why it matters for CEE

Cost is only half the story in Poland. In the December 2025 capacity auction for delivery in 2030, the de-rating factor for batteries was cut to around 13%, down from 60% a year earlier. Battery awards fell to roughly 685 MW of obligations, from 2.5 GW in the 2024 auction, while gas won around 2,400 MW.² The government had already signalled that it wanted auctions in which gas plants could win.³

For developers in Poland this suggests that cheaper batteries alone will not restore capacity-market revenue. Projects increasingly have to earn their keep from trading and balancing services rather than from a fixed capacity payment.

What to watch

Whether next year's auction parameters change the battery de-rating factor – that number, more than global cost curves, will set the pace of Polish storage build-out.